Time to Buy?

Over the last few days, as I’ve sat at my desk at work monitoring the financial news on my twitter feed, I have become more and more hungry for some financial markets action. I am absolutely salivating over the clearance sale in tech on wall street these days. But at the same time, I’m very afraid to jump in without any signs of stability in the near future.

This techcrunch article lays out an interesting discussion of how low Google’s stock can go. I look at the stocks of Google, Amazon and Apple and see a real chance for value investors to jump in and make a killing. I want to talk about Google in particular because I am very close to buying a few grand of stock in this particular company. This is a company which has had its market cap drop to $120 billion from twice that. Google is going to have $20 billion in revenues this year at nearly 100% margins. Why does it have  a revenue multiple comparable to what we would expect from a manufacturer such as General Electric or Ford?

Google is a sure thing. Their balance sheet is so strong right now. Sure there will be less money going into advertising in general, but I’m thinking that there might even be a possibility that online advertising will be the equivalent of an inferior good in classical economics in that the more advertising budgets decrease the more appealing cheaper forms of advertising become. But the point is, Google has so many things going on right now, and they have a lock on search advertising (particularly after this Yahoo deal goes through), so I really do think that they’re going to continue to keep hitting revenue projections. And since they might as well be printing cash, they are not going to be directly effected by credit markets.

So I’ve pretty much made my decision. Now the question is, when do I buy? How low will Google go? I’m thinking $250-275. What do you guys think? Prospecting going on at the end of the trading day over the last few declines have kept the prices higher than they otherwise would be, so now is not right yet. I want to look for some sense of consistency in the price over a couple of days before I jump in, but I’m afraid that it’s going to jump quickly when it does. Should I just buy now to avoid missing it?

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